[OC] Oldies but Goodies (how the NBA may be underrating older prospects like Ayo Dosunmu)

2022.01.25 10:41 ZandrickEllison [OC] Oldies but Goodies (how the NBA may be underrating older prospects like Ayo Dosunmu)

Reddit has a starring role this month in the new documentary GAMESTOP: Rise of the Players. The movie documents how egotistical Wall Street fat cats and hedge funds had bet against old-fashioned brands like the store GameStop, only to see a ragtag group of outsiders (partly gathered here on the WallStreetBets sub) rally a backlash that caused the stock to rocket up and caused the hedge funds to lose millions in the process.
While Wall Street hedge funds have gotten more modern and analytical, so too have NBA front offices. For most of them, there are certain axioms that that they've been betting on and certain traits that they're betting against. If Wall Street hates brick-and-mortar businesses like GameStop, then NBA hates something else just as much: upperclassmen. Older draft prospects. Players who stayed in college for 3 or -- gasp! -- even 4 years. As the theory goes, these has-beens have no upside in the tank and no reason to get drafted at all.
But if you look back at the last decade of draft results, it becomes clear that the NBA may be overcorrecting to some degree. In fact, almost all the value picks after the first round were upperclassmen (or Euros.)
Here's a look back at the last decade's draft results, and the trend that's emerged:
2011: We're largely ignoring Europeans and international players in this study, because R2 has always been a ripe area to select "draft and stash" Euros. Sure enough, we see two here in 2011 with Bojan Bogdanovic (pick # 31) and Davis Bertans ( # 42). However, the R2 pick with the best career was right here under our noses, literally, with Washington guard Isaiah Thomas. Thomas' career has petered out, but it's nearly impossible to find a # 60 pick who turned into an MVP candidate. Thomas' struggle to go higher was mostly a result of his size, but the fact that he was a college junior didn't help either. Two other late picks had the same issue -- Florida's Chandler Parsons (# 38 pick) and another Huskie in Justin Holiday (undrafted.) Both Parsons and Holiday were seniors, and underrated partly as a result.
2012: We have another stellar R2 pick here in Draymond Green (pick # 35). In a weird way, he got flagged in the same way as Isaiah Thomas -- he was seen as too small for his position. At the same time, Green was also seen as a low upside player because he had been a college senior. The next best pick in the round -- Texas A&M unknown Khris Middleton (pick # 39) was a junior. Other value picks included Kent Bazemore and JyMychal Green, who both overachieved given their undrafted status. Notably, both were seniors. For the first time, we have our first younger player earning a mention -- as Jae Crowder ( pick # 34) was only a sophomore coming out of Marquette. Looking back, it's surprising he didn't go R1 given he fit the template of a modern player with 3+D traits (shooting 35% from 3 in college.)
2013: There are no stellar R2 picks here, but there have been a few rotational players coming from the pool of undrafted players. Dewayne Dedmon has been decent at times, but the best player in this crop is Seth Curry. Even with his brother's success, Curry went undrafted after spending 5 years in college (including a transfer year.) Matthew Dellavedova also did better than expectations; like Curry, he was undrafted. Like Curry, he was a college senior.
2014: Nikola Jokic is the best of this group (and virtually any group you put him in), but we're focusing on college players here. Among them, Syracuse sophomore Jerami Grant (pick # 39) has probably been the best of the bunch. That said, he's followed by three more upperclassmen -- Joe Harris (pick # 33) Jordan Clarkson (pick # 46), and Dwight Powell (pick # 45). All three players spent 4 years in college.
2015: This year yielded a slew of upperclassmen who turned out to be either starters or rotational players. In draft order, they're Montrezl Harrell (pick # 32), Richaun Holmes (pick # 37), Josh Richardson (pick # 40), Pat Connaughton (pick # 41), Norman Powell (pick #46), T.J. McConnell (undrafted), and Royce O'Neal (undrafted.) Harrell and Holmes were juniors, while the other five were seniors.
2016: Among the only notable names here are Euro Ivica Zubac and Virginia's Malcolm Brogdon (pick # 36). Brogdon was, again, a senior. He parlayed his "low upside" projection into a Rookie of the Year trophy and a massive contract from the Pacers.
2017: In a nearly identical repeat, "low upside" Fred VanVleet turned out to be another massive surprise and may even make the All-Star team this year. VanVleet possibly could have gotten picked in R2, but preferred to go the undrafted route instead. The NBA largely ignored VanVleet (and Brogdon) despite their high IQ and shooting prowess because they were both seniors who theoretically didn't have any upside left in the tank. All the other late round starters/rotation players -- Dillon Brooks, Monte Morris, Bryn Forbes, Danuel House, and Gary Payton II were upperclassmen as well. Brooks was a junior, while the other 4 were seniors.
2018: Villanova guard Jalen Brunson (pick # 33) nearly made it 3 years in a row of stocky senior guards, but alas, he was "only" a junior. This whole draft actually went against our grain more than any other year. The other top steals -- Mitchell Robinson (pick # 36), Gary Trent Jr. (pick # 37), and Jarred Vanderbilt (pick # 41) -- were actually freshmen. All three were bluechip high school recruits as well. But Robinson didn't play in college due to off-the-court reasons, Vanderbilt barely played due to injuries, and Trent... was... I don't know. Oddly underdrafted. This is the first time we actually see the young "upside" picks work out.
2019: Two more younger players do all right here, as Nic Claxton ( pick # 31) and Daniel Gafford (pick # 38) have overachieved. In a way though, Gafford shows the NBA's obsession with youth. If he had declared from Arkansas after his freshman year, he probably would have gone top 20. By nature of being older, he ended up slipping a few spots. The other R2/undrafted steals are a mixed bag -- Terrence Mann (pick # 48), John Konchar (undrafted), and Terence Davis (undrafted) were all seniors, but Naz Reid was a freshman.
2020: This wasn't a great year for R2/undrafted picks. But the best of the bunch -- Xavier Tillman (pick # 35) and Omer Yurtseven (undrafted) were both juniors. Yurtseven actually spent 4 years in college due to a transfer.
2021: It's early, but we're seeing the return of our trend so far this year. Alabama wing stopper Herbert Jones (pick #35) has been starting for New Orleans, and Illinois star Ayo Dosunmu (pick # 38) has been starting for the Bulls recently and doing quite well. Jones was a senior; Dosunmu a junior. Jones' skill set is more of an acquired taste, but Dosunmu illustrates our principle quite well. After all, this isn't a kid who should have snuck up on anybody. Last season at Illinois, he averaged 20.1 point, 6.3 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game and shot 39% from beyond the arc. In the process, he led the Illini to a # 1 seed in the tournament. When you look at the reason that he'd fall all the way down to R2, you'd have to point to "age" as the primary factor.
CONCLUSIONS and CAVEATS
Most of the players we're talking about here aren't superstars -- they're mostly fringe starters and rotational players. Given that, you may argue that the NBA is smart to take bigger swings and go for the "home run" instead.
But here's the thing: they haven't hit home runs. At all. (In terms of younger NCAA players.) I'm not cherry picking this list -- I'm trying to mention all the R2 picks that have done well. Among younger players, Mitchell Robinson and Gary Trent Jr. are probably the best of the bunch, and they'd lag behind our college seniors in terms of upside and career accolades.
So if you were a baseball manager, and your shortstop kept hacking away and trying to hit home runs and never actually did -- wouldn't you tell him to square up and try to get a single or double along the way? Those picks can be very valuable from a team building point of view. R2 picks are on dirt-cheap contracts and can help build the kind of depth that can sustain you through the long slog of the regular season.
To be fair, there's an important caveat to mention here. Most of the R2 steals were upperclassmen, partly because most R2 picks are upperclassmen. (Again, only judging NCAA players not internationals.) In the years we've highlighted, about 46% of all R2 picks were seniors. The reason behind this is that most freshmen aren't going to declare for the draft if they don't anticipate going high. As a result, the later rounds tend to be populated with a lot of older, "low upside" players.
Still, we've seen a lot of examples of those "low upside" players getting better and better and turning into good NBA players. It certainly makes sense to go for the one-and-done freak athletes at the top of the lottery, but you have to wonder if the league is undervaluing the older guys in the draft after that.
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2022.01.25 10:41 namoadesh I badly want a WFH job in a startup preferably.

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2022.01.25 10:40 No-Transition3739 Relationship anxiety

I realize that I am very anxious to be replaced or left by my girlfriend My girlfriend's company offers sports activities and she's going to go with a trainee who is by the way very handsome
I realize that it's nothing serious and we've already talked about it but I feel like I'm in a bind because as soon as she told me, my blood ran cold and I couldn't talk for an hour
Then we discussed it and she was very understanding but it is a short term palliative She proposed me to cancel the gym session but I told her she should go to it because I don’t want to limit her activities because of my anxiety and insecurity issues
As of this morning my chest is tight and I can't see any way out and I want to die because I can't see any scenario in which I am not deeply unhappy
1- I hate the idea of limiting and controlling my girlfriend’s activities 2- I can't stand the idea of my girlfriend doing things with guys that she could be attracted to without me 3- so I am in an unbearable situation 4- I am unhappy single
No way out
Any advices ?
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2022.01.25 10:40 OllieOrly A Forgotten Shrine ⛲️

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2022.01.25 10:40 jainvadapav Playing Devils Advocate: Akshay Gets Unfair Hate On The Sub

We are all bashing Khiladi Kumar for doing all movies he sees, but let's play Devils advocate. As a 90's Kid, you always have a soft spot for Khildai for amazing movies like Hera Pheri, Phir Hera Pheri, Bhool Bhulaiya.
Let me play devils advocate and call that hate unjustified and present my case:
Background
Till 2004-2006 Akshay Kumar, was not an A Lister. This was after being in the industry for 13 years. Then it was the 2006 2007 series of hits that established him as an A Lister.
As not a Star, he fought with Yash Chopra, THE YASH CHOPRA over non payment of dues. And then did not work with YRF till Tashan. Then he was delivering back to back hits. He won his first award in 2002, 10-11 years after joining films.
His speech at the ITA is legendary for calling out the award shows. https://www.facebook.com/TheITAOfficial/videos/akshay-kumars-first-awards-honoured-by-the-ita/2724525354532445/
We can see how strong the tide was against SSR, against KA today and how blinds are being painted to see new non nepo actresses as being whores.
He fought, survived and created a fan following while going against the Johars of the Industry when they were much more powerful. It may have been easier as his wife was part of the inner coterie
Let's look at the main reasons he gets hate on the sub:

  1. He's an alleged womaniser: That is nearly every man in the industry. And the other guys here are being hypocrites if they say they would not admire the female attention he gets. Most guys alleging this are just jealous. Maybe he's having affairs, as long as it is consensual, does it really need to matter to us?
  2. He does Nationalistic Cinema: Sehwag bats one way, Sachin another and Rohit another. McDonalds makes burgers and not tacos, Pulmonologists treat respiratory diseases while Neurologists treat neural diseases. People have a niche. Playing nationalistic roles is his forte. Why does he get hate for it? SRK played the romantic hero for the longest time. No one goes after him. AK has done more genres than any other actor in Bollywood today. He knows his strengths and plays to it.
  3. He's A Greedy Canadian: They all are. He likes his money. Who here does not have a friend or family member who has not moved abroad for better opportunities? Go the Canada Embassy and look at the backlog for the PR applications.
  4. He does too many movies: It is a reflection of work ethic. He delivers the 4 average grossers and is bankable. He is utilising it.
In closing:
Kumar is a decent actor and better businessman. I think he is disillusioned by the entire industry after being in it for near 3 decades and not having enough success in the first 15 years of the journey.
He never got awards till Ajnabee, big producers refused to pay him. His speech at ITA says it all.
His producers find him professional who shows up on time, does his work and leaves. He is bankable and does a decent screen portrayal.
It's not like his contemporaries like SRK, Aamir, Salman, Devgan are all doing breathtaking cinema anyways.
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2022.01.25 10:40 Frigid_Axel If ARod decides to stay I have a few reservations.

  1. Stop the fucking publicity. No commercials, no Pat macafee show, no nothing. I know he is all about the R.E.L.A.X mindsetset but seriously. You get paid to win. C'MON MAN!
  2. FUCKING PRACTICE WITH YOUR TEAM YOU FUCK! Show the fuck up man. Put in reps with more than just 5 people. Injuries happen it is inevitable. Co-vid BS aside. 2 weeks is a fraction of time compared to the entirety of the season. How many fucking practices did rodgers not fucking attend this season? Like 36? Fuck is that about?
  3. Lastly man. The community, the fandom, the team itself, everyone who bleeds green and yellow, myself included. Loves you to death for what youve done for all of us. Just make up your mind one way or the other. This season felt like you had one foot in one foot out. And it showed.
I personally hope you come back to and finish your career and Lambeau Rodgers. And if you wind up seeing this somehow you need to know it comes from a place of love and respect but most importantly to put the 49s in their mother fucking place for the rest of your career. They fuckin burnt you in your draft and you cant fucking let that stand.
Stop relaxing and get fucking heated !!!
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2022.01.25 10:40 theonewithcats Eu consigo me mudar para a Europa com cidadania mas sem o passaporte?

O título meio que resume tudo. Consegui tirar minha cidadania italiana após anos na fila, mas devido à pandemia está impossível tirar o passaporte italiano.
Viajar pra Europa no passaporte brasileiro e tentar me estabelecer lá é uma possibilidade ou fico restrita aos 90 dias do visto e sem chance de trabalhar legalmente? Quero ir embora do Brasil :(
Se alguém tem uma história de que largou tudo pra começar do zero em outro país eu adoraria ouvir, estou numa fase bem sem esperança e acho que apenas uma mudança radical conseguiria me levantar de novo.
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2022.01.25 10:40 scarecr0w1886 About all the turtle care/neglect posts

I hate seeing them too, they are damn depressing. However, I do think having somewhere to ask questions and do better is good. Maybe though there could be a separate sub for turtle help? Idk
Also, I agree wholeheartedly in this day and age there is 0 excuse to abuse and neglect a pet and ignorance is no excuse. However, a good number of those posts are from children who have limited options or people who have taken in a neglected pet knowing they need to help it but not knowing how. If they have been given the pet by a family member and come here asking for advice then i believe they deserve more patience and compassion, assuming they take the advice, if they argue they are assholes lol
And remember not everyone is in the US OR Europe. They may not have access to a vet, or a decent vet, like the one kid whose vet said to do every other day water changes! How would he know to disregard that advice? My vet also told me to be very careful with advice online because so much of it is outdated or inaccurate so someone could have done research and just made mistakes as well.
Overall i think its a complex issue and not all posts should be treated the same. Context is important.
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2022.01.25 10:40 yong13 Help. Thanks

Help. Thanks
What should I get on UPS if I buy this setup?
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